Projection shows grayer Delaware in the future
Over the next 50 years, Delaware's population is expected to swell to more than 1 million and be comprised of more seniors, according to recently compiled data. But that growth is slowing down and will only be among certain age groups.
The findings are part of annual projections released by the Delaware Population Consortium, a collaboration between local governments and other interests that create a unified projection each year on how the state's population will change over the coming decades. The most recent data was released last week, and it was the first time the consortium made projections out to 2050.
In 2015, Delaware's population sat at 945,937. By 2025, that figure is expected to be about 1,014,000. By 2050, the population is expected to reach 1,076,000.
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At its peak growth, Delaware's population was growing at a rate of about 12,000 to 13,000 people a year. In 2008-2009, it dropped to an annual increase of about 8,000 a year. The total gain for 2014-2015 statewide was 9,966 people.
Dan Blevins, principal planner for the Wilmington Area Planning Council and a consortium member, said two primary factors contribute to population rise: there being more births than deaths as well as people migrating into the area.
As a whole, Delaware is currently benefiting from both of those factors. A relatively young population in New Castle and Kent counties have births exceeding deaths for now. That is not the case in Sussex, where retirees have fueled a migration boom even as the population dies faster than it can reproduce.
"Sussex County, for population growth, is limited to people who move here to retire, largely," said Edward Ratledge, director of the University of Delaware's Center for Applied Demography & Survey Research.
As a whole, Delaware will not always benefit from seeing more births than deaths.
The aging of Delaware is accelerating. By 2025, the number of Delawareans 65 or older will have increased by 25 percent since 2015. By 2050, there will be 71 percent more seniors living in the state. This demographic will see the most growth in the coming decades.
Those 65 and older will be the state's second-largest age demographic behind those aged 30 to 64.
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The growth of Delaware's senior population is driven by the aging of the baby boomer generation as well as the so-called "gray wave" of retirees lured here by Delaware's relatively low cost of living and friendly tax climate.
As this happens, the younger population is projected to shrink over the coming decades because people are having fewer children, Ratledge said.
"You are not getting a big boom from people having kids," Ratledge said. "You should go talk to the millennials about that."
That leads to a situation where the annual number of deaths will surpass the number of births beginning in 2030. That is already occurring in Sussex County, Ratledge said.
"Later on, they will all have that problem occurring (statewide)," Ratledge said. "You can't get a lot of growth unless you can get people to move in from outside."
Blevins said the aging of the population will have wide-ranging implications for several areas of public policy, including transportation and development.
"The demand for paratransit and other modes and methods (of transportation) will grow," Blevins said. "In housing, generally your market for 65 and older is looking to downsize. Is the market going to fit that need for downsizing?"
Ratledge said the trajectory is pointing toward increases in taxes.
"As people retire they make less money. They are paying fewer taxes than they were before," Ratledge said. "The fact there is less taxable income around, and you have a little problem funding your government."
Contact Xerxes Wilson at (302) 324-2787 or xwilson@delawareonline.com. Follow @Ber_Xerxes on Twitter.