Report: Delaware good at predicting climate change impact

During a recent coastal storm, some folks in Oak Orchard near Millsboro were stuck in their homes for four straight days. The streets were impassable because of high water.

Del 1. along the coast was flooded, too, forcing people to travel 40 miles inland and then backtrack 10 miles between Bethany and Dewey beaches.

Delaware, it turns out, has done a good job planning and predicting when these low-lying places will flood, according "States at Risk: America's Preparedness Report Card" issued by Wednesday by the groups Climate Central and ICF International.

State officials still have work to do in implementation of two of their key planning documents that address sea level rise and a state framework to address climate change impacts by state agencies, the report found. In addition, they have more work to address impacts from extreme heat days.

The report praised state efforts to plan for climate risks, especially coastal flooding. The state received a B-plus on the report card, which considered flood, heat and other threats and looked at how well communities are prepared.

Susan E. Love, climate and sustainability section lead in the state division of Energy and Climate, said that it was good to be recognized for the planning efforts.

But she said, "We haven't put together a specific implementation plan" for the 55 recommendation in the state's Sea Level Rise Adaptation Plan or the 166 action items in a climate framework that outlines key issues facing state agencies.

Still, Love said, "It is nice to have verification that we are moving in the right direction."

Meanwhile, she said, state agencies are working to incorporate the framework recommendations into projects and plans.

"We have made a lot of progress," she said.

The findings were released as the National Climatic Data Center issued global temperature data for October and reported that combined average temperature over both land and sea surfaces was the highest recorded for an October in 136 years of record-keeping. October was the sixth consecutive month when global land and sea surface temperatures broke global temperature records.

A strong El Niño in the equatorial Pacific is expected to continue impacting climate and weather globally. The national long-range forecast for winter suggests slightly warmer temperatures and slightly higher precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic. New England is expected to be warmer than normal.

In the United States, October was also a warmer than normal month nationally but in Delaware and neighboring states, both temperature and rainfall were about average for the month.

One of the big weather events in October in Delaware was a coastal storm that brought heavy rain, beach erosion and flooding to coastal areas.

The States at Risk report found that Delaware faces three key threats from climate change: more extreme heat days -- which are expected to more that quadruple and rise from 15 to more that 50 by 2050; more inland flooding and increased coastal flooding.

The report found "a  greater proportion of Delaware’s area is at risk of coastal flooding than any state except Florida and Louisiana. Approximately 5.4 percent, or 100 square miles, of Delaware’s land is currently within the 100-year coastal floodplain; by 2050, this is projected to increase to 7.1 percent or 130 square miles" as sea level rises.

The report found that Alaska, California, Massachusetts, Maryland, New York and Pennsylvania where the only states that has assessed future climate vulnerabilities and designed and implemented plans to deal with them.

Reach Molly Murray at (302) 463-3334 or mmurray@delawareonline.com. Follow her on Twitter @MollyMurraytnj.